Oregon Arrest and Race Analysis
Russell_Corey
December 14, 2022
Intro
Data
The two data sources used are the “Uniform Crime Reporting” Offenses data and the Oregon 2020 Census data from Portland University.
Crime Data
The crime reporting data set is accessible directly from
https://www.oregon.gov/osp/Pages/Uniform-Crime-Reporting-Data.aspx
Population Data
The Oregon census data can be found at the website
Methodology
Results
| city | black_diff | latino_diff | native_diff | pacific_diff | asian_diff | other_diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland city | 0.1775479 | -0.0081562 | 0.0096021 | 0.0019667 | -0.0574304 | 0.0022551 |
| Gresham city | 0.1559631 | -0.0181710 | 0.0049981 | 0.0003788 | -0.0354360 | 0.0109272 |
| Tigard city | 0.0979545 | -0.0519784 | 0.0089440 | 0.0057124 | -0.0634898 | 0.0500510 |
| Beaverton city | 0.0890202 | 0.0289533 | 0.0040674 | 0.0021812 | -0.1029544 | 0.0267245 |
| Durham city | 0.0857441 | -0.0210637 | 0.0017665 | -0.0172110 | -0.0191598 | 0.0106359 |
| Tualatin city | 0.0633784 | -0.0070094 | 0.0050006 | 0.0346845 | -0.0238777 | 0.0468155 |
Result Visualiazion
Map plots of each racial bias
Black arrest bias map.
Correlation Analysis
We want to inspect potential correlations between racial population
density and arrest biases. First we will inspect the data to see what
type of corelations we may want to perform.
From the QQ plots we see most of the data series are not normally
distributed. See Appendix A3 for all the plots. So we will perform a
Spearman’s correlation since the data does not meet the assumptions of
the Pearson’s correlation test. # Spearman Correlation matrix
Closer inspection of data fields with statistically significant correlation values.
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
Sources
Oregon Crime Data
“Oregon State Police: Uniform Crime Reporting”
https://www.oregon.gov/osp/Pages/Uniform-Crime-Reporting-Data.aspxOregon Census Data
“Census Data for Oregon” Population Research Center
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/census-data-oregon Direct link for data set:
https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1JrrmYiQUBPux8nnJ88epAAk9U5rbRDBDFBI
“FBI-Violent Crime” FBI: UCR
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/violent-crimeOregon Spatial Data Library
“Oregon Counties - 2015”
https://spatialdata.oregonexplorer.info/geoportal/details;id=361c06fee9de4e24a72e280fb386a771Appendi A1 Result Table
| city | black_diff | latino_diff | native_diff | pacific_diff | asian_diff | other_diff | white_diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany city | 0.0219080 | -0.0479248 | -0.0057834 | -0.0023034 | -0.0104086 | 0.0046077 | 0.0938700 |
| Ashland city | 0.0272064 | -0.0468150 | -0.0035888 | 0.0004215 | -0.0152863 | 0.0034937 | 0.0900060 |
| Astoria city | 0.0236614 | -0.0181890 | -0.0074060 | -0.0005554 | -0.0105394 | 0.0163879 | 0.0523206 |
| Beaverton city | 0.0890202 | 0.0289533 | 0.0040674 | 0.0021812 | -0.1029544 | 0.0267245 | 0.0108383 |
| Canby city | 0.0363275 | -0.0171796 | -0.0045363 | 0.0003424 | -0.0120996 | 0.0297832 | 0.0133592 |
| Central Point city | 0.0218978 | -0.0634285 | -0.0047254 | -0.0007728 | -0.0072944 | 0.0144257 | 0.0924388 |
| Coos Bay city | 0.0104328 | -0.0466396 | -0.0038633 | -0.0008332 | -0.0152193 | 0.0014391 | 0.1169996 |
| Cornelius city | 0.0359101 | -0.1252862 | 0.0020102 | 0.0002792 | -0.0150479 | 0.0114812 | 0.1262702 |
| Corvallis city | 0.0427724 | -0.0200813 | 0.0024083 | -0.0014403 | -0.0882549 | 0.0120713 | 0.1096036 |
| Dallas city | 0.0232704 | -0.0051216 | -0.0099940 | 0.0028297 | -0.0073790 | 0.0694612 | -0.0245186 |
| Eugene city | 0.0569202 | -0.0647195 | 0.0006728 | -0.0025293 | -0.0365916 | 0.0015371 | 0.1081902 |
| Gladstone city | 0.0477583 | -0.0441702 | -0.0010939 | -0.0018907 | -0.0017546 | 0.0230005 | 0.0356243 |
| Grants Pass city | 0.0133260 | -0.0291645 | -0.0066572 | -0.0001223 | -0.0106954 | 0.0327994 | 0.0595479 |
| Gresham city | 0.1559631 | -0.0181710 | 0.0049981 | 0.0003788 | -0.0354360 | 0.0109272 | -0.0590437 |
| Hermiston city | 0.0288144 | -0.0836929 | 0.0108989 | -0.0013711 | -0.0108996 | 0.0018595 | 0.0894422 |
| Hillsboro city | 0.0495899 | 0.0414056 | 0.0042882 | -0.0000232 | -0.1169413 | 0.0138497 | 0.0612820 |
| Hood River city | 0.0106477 | -0.0398128 | 0.0570045 | 0.0016845 | -0.0205420 | 0.1514733 | -0.1173093 |
| Keizer city | 0.0331169 | -0.0147770 | -0.0037847 | 0.0002610 | -0.0113163 | 0.0571888 | -0.0045305 |
| La Grande city | 0.0112787 | -0.0264811 | -0.0042744 | 0.0000620 | -0.0032673 | 0.0051539 | 0.0983285 |
| Lake Oswego city | 0.0554664 | 0.0204363 | 0.0008123 | 0.0045821 | -0.0574355 | 0.0249205 | -0.0052392 |
| Lincoln City city | 0.0308455 | -0.0222559 | 0.0019009 | -0.0009249 | -0.0062827 | 0.0821195 | -0.0262385 |
| Medford city | 0.0425625 | -0.1014369 | -0.0029203 | -0.0016793 | -0.0173741 | 0.0053747 | 0.1366091 |
| Milwaukie city | 0.0563064 | -0.0580298 | 0.0032072 | 0.0033073 | -0.0107399 | 0.0362037 | 0.0299018 |
| Molalla city | 0.0053050 | -0.0955633 | -0.0044364 | 0.0020464 | -0.0083427 | 0.0326781 | 0.1200370 |
| Mount Angel city | 0.0257201 | 0.1174529 | -0.0028168 | 0.0099883 | -0.0036014 | 0.0218676 | -0.1297720 |
| Newberg city | 0.0324808 | 0.0265783 | -0.0010112 | 0.0025052 | -0.0104763 | 0.0011268 | 0.0032122 |
| Dundee city | 0.0375316 | 0.0365456 | 0.0001313 | 0.0025146 | -0.0045529 | 0.0005366 | -0.0333877 |
| Newport city | 0.0164805 | -0.0764491 | 0.0258078 | 0.0013199 | -0.0166029 | 0.1024149 | 0.0010766 |
| Ontario city | 0.0309899 | -0.3590707 | 0.0015324 | -0.0000107 | -0.0207552 | -0.0006217 | 0.3851915 |
| Oregon City city | 0.0351976 | -0.0264617 | -0.0018572 | 0.0022086 | -0.0114948 | 0.0219092 | 0.0359716 |
| Pendleton city | 0.0127693 | -0.0594187 | 0.1483630 | -0.0005456 | -0.0070844 | -0.0011662 | -0.0501323 |
| Philomath city | 0.0155518 | -0.0486866 | -0.0009599 | -0.0005154 | -0.0124471 | 0.0274526 | 0.0778616 |
| Phoenix city | 0.0044905 | -0.0973220 | -0.0025737 | 0.0004770 | -0.0136342 | 0.0082897 | 0.1493908 |
| Portland city | 0.1775479 | -0.0081562 | 0.0096021 | 0.0019667 | -0.0574304 | 0.0022551 | -0.0631213 |
| Reedsport city | 0.0137314 | -0.0354702 | 0.0140279 | 0.0071283 | -0.0064590 | 0.0560641 | -0.0006308 |
| Roseburg city | 0.0121818 | -0.0406508 | -0.0058161 | -0.0005494 | -0.0156044 | -0.0005893 | 0.1070369 |
| Salem city | 0.0528040 | -0.0515928 | -0.0010441 | 0.0045233 | -0.0223391 | 0.0205018 | 0.0547593 |
| Seaside city | 0.0245657 | -0.0687073 | -0.0041417 | 0.0000847 | -0.0159526 | 0.0835231 | 0.0299470 |
| Sherwood city | 0.0481243 | -0.0169153 | 0.0048553 | 0.0018514 | -0.0257099 | 0.0902980 | -0.0496444 |
| Springfield city | 0.0465052 | -0.0882439 | -0.0085353 | -0.0036848 | -0.0100009 | -0.0024426 | 0.1299046 |
| Stanfield city | 0.0075356 | -0.0964365 | 0.0189726 | -0.0002673 | -0.0021684 | 0.0020003 | 0.1197934 |
| Stayton city | 0.0086999 | -0.0693156 | -0.0096718 | 0.0007800 | -0.0077423 | 0.0379747 | 0.0978054 |
| Sweet Home city | 0.0082515 | -0.0337289 | -0.0105359 | -0.0005883 | -0.0052021 | 0.0084639 | 0.1008325 |
| Talent city | 0.0250350 | -0.0875603 | -0.0005958 | 0.0014409 | -0.0124695 | -0.0044598 | 0.1274889 |
| The Dalles city | 0.0085329 | -0.0443685 | 0.0446626 | -0.0003972 | -0.0076519 | 0.0150557 | 0.0344167 |
| Tigard city | 0.0979545 | -0.0519784 | 0.0089440 | 0.0057124 | -0.0634898 | 0.0500510 | 0.0124552 |
| Tualatin city | 0.0633784 | -0.0070094 | 0.0050006 | 0.0346845 | -0.0238777 | 0.0468155 | -0.0581640 |
| Umatilla city | -0.0017284 | -0.1003254 | -0.0032772 | 0.0028794 | -0.0051668 | 0.0038039 | 0.1205883 |
| Warrenton city | 0.0049022 | -0.0364269 | -0.0021937 | -0.0030394 | -0.0175967 | 0.0760794 | 0.0405952 |
| Durham city | 0.0857441 | -0.0210637 | 0.0017665 | -0.0172110 | -0.0191598 | 0.0106359 | 0.0385803 |
| West Linn city | 0.0489069 | 0.0133775 | 0.0085253 | 0.0103611 | -0.0349680 | 0.0389043 | -0.0345732 |
| Winston city | 0.0121672 | -0.0339838 | -0.0040406 | 0.0003535 | -0.0065561 | -0.0031432 | 0.0937977 |
| Woodburn city | 0.0104018 | 0.1609522 | -0.0025352 | -0.0003854 | -0.0060511 | 0.0044525 | -0.1413604 |
Appendex A2 Maps
Appendix A3 Data Distributions
Appendix B
source code available at https://github.com/russl-corey/Oregon_Crime
This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.
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